Posted by: donmihaihai | January 8, 2016

Market talk 8 Jan 2016

Lets talk about the market. The most common things around for start of 2016.

Markets in red since the start of 2016 and dropping pretty fast. What will happened next and what to do? I don’t know.

What do I know.

  • There are many investors blogging online, having huge readers, giving out advises and even provide courses. To be honest, I don’t know most of them and pretty sure they “pop” out quite recently. I always say the same thing. Bull market suck people in, bear market throw people out. Never change since the day when I bought my first share. Lot of investors back then are either MIA or doesn’t blog or forum much. Not going to think how many of these current investors will still be around few years down the road.
  • Investors who are a little longer in this “game” always say GFC as if the crisis is one we should avoid or buy like crazy. When I started, we keep saying about tech bubbles and Asian crisis. Sound old? Stock market has hundreds of years history and we are just babies.
  • Last 13 years or so was good! Was either a bull market or 2. I don’t know and really doesn’t matter. But I do think that it is a secular bull market and not sure if it has ended. Because of this, I think the next up will be secular bear market. Which mean the return for the next 10 to 20 yrs(after secular bull market) will not be as good.
  • It is stock market and you will never know. How many investors predicted that stock markets dropped on the first trading day of 2016? How many investors predicted the bull market of Japan? What about the slump in commodities? The great US secular bull market from 1980 to 2000? Japan bubbles? Taiwan bubbles?
  • If I have a crystal ball, I will short commodities and long Japan equities for the past 2 years to 3 years.

Pretty much end of my market talk. Pretty much all backward looking because I don’t know what is going to happen going forward.



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