Posted by: donmihaihai | May 5, 2021

WB quiz

I am going to take the quiz and rather than handicap myself like some hero, I am going to give myself another leg. My guess is base on normal and not some crazy valuation and with my limited understanding of the businesses.

Apple – A close yes base on not many alternatives and it is big enough.

Saudi Aramco – Yes. But I would like to sit this one out.

Microsoft – No. Base on I think window/office become cheaper. ie earn less money and more competition on cloud.

Amazon – Yes. Cloud is same as Microsoft. Online platform, I don’t think it is easy for new players to catch up current players. Current players are both online and offline. International will be a dogfight.

Alphabet – Yes. Google is still search and it is global(except some countries)

Facebook- No. Hard to be the place to be gathered in the future for kids below 20 years old.

Tencent – game and wechat? I say no. More competition in China and lot of competition once they get out of the great china wall.

Tesla – No. Industry is not that big and EV and autonomous create more competition

Alibaba – online platform and alipay? I say no. same reason as Tencent

Berkshire Hathaway – No. Growth will slow. harder to make it into top 20.

Taiwan Semiconductor – No. Domination but too big and powerful for being just a manufacturer.

VISA – Yes. A global electronic payments. You need brand, trust, speed and spread. Kind of winner take all industry.

JP Morgan Chase – No. Banking is about Scale. US not big enough. Maybe China will be but it will follow US footsteps once country with high population developed.

J&J – No. I don’t see drug and consumer co. going into top 20 globally in the future.

Samsung Electronics – No. Would be a surprise if there are more brand in this segment earning lot of money in the future where the basic rule is lower and lower price for same product.

Kweichow moutai – No. Not seeing it as a global brand

Walmart – No. Unless it can repeat what it done in US in another country.

Mastercard – Yes. Same reason as VISA

United Healthcare – No. Same reason as Walmart but in healthcare.

LVMH MOET – No. Brand conglomerate? Very hard and too small.

So my picks will be Apple, Saudi Aramco , Amazon , Alphabet , VISA and Mastercard.

5 US companies and 1 country.

I don’t want to bet against a country and it is so huge now. If the last spot is 4T. I would bet that it will take that spot from current 1.92T. Oil will not be going away yet and 30 year is a long time to adapt.

I am not into the current US vs China shithole and I seriously hope that there won’t be any war. I believe to be in top 20 30 years later, companies must be strong in their home country and also the globe. The bigger the home country the better it is provided they have tamed the competition. That is my preceded landscape 30 years from now.

Pick Apple, Alphabet, VISA and Mastercard because I view them as global companies. While I think Amazon is more US than global, it is huge. I see Tencent and Alibaba as more China than global. While China has a bigger population and will be bigger in the future, there is also a lot more competition. I believe the 5 US companies face lesser competition in home country. At global stage, these companies have advantage they are the first mover and some of them have already “won” in many countries which mean it is hard to kick them off their spots. China companies face a harder time in global arena and while I bet there would be many successful companies from China in the future, I just don’t think it will be the current 3.

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